In this episode of Retail Power Talks, we dive into the future of retail and ecommerce with one of the most respected voices in the space — Poonam Goyal, Senior Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Poonam has her pulse on industry giants like Amazon, Nike, eBay, and others, and she recently released a powerful analysis on Amazon.

From the rise of third-party sellers to the structural shifts in consumer behavior, Poonam unpacks the core levers fueling Amazon’s growth and how its marketplace model continues to shape the ecommerce landscape.

Q: In your recent report, Amazon is positioned to surpass $1.2 trillion in total revenue by 2030 — that’s massive. What are the biggest levers Amazon is pulling to keep up this momentum?

A: Absolutely. Amazon is already the largest online retailer in the U.S., and it’s continuing to grow rapidly. One of the main drivers is the ongoing shift from brick-and-mortar to online retail. Even today, around 75% of all U.S. retail sales still happen in physical stores, so ecommerce penetration is only about 25%.

We estimate that online sales will reach 33% penetration by 2030, and Amazon is well-positioned to capture that growth. Another key lever is their third-party (3P) marketplace. More than 60% of Amazon’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) now comes from third-party sellers, and that number is still climbing.

With continued innovation across all categories — from apparel to home goods — Amazon still has plenty of runway to take additional market share.

Q: A big part of Amazon’s dominance also comes from the power of its third-party marketplace sellers, who seem to be the unsung heroes of its ecommerce success. Why are these 3P sellers so critical, and what keeps them loyal to Amazon’s platform?

A: Third-party sellers are incredibly important to Amazon. When people think of Amazon as the “everything store,” it’s really these 3P sellers who make that possible. They massively broaden Amazon’s assortment by offering thousands of additional products across various categories.

What makes this model even more attractive is that Amazon doesn’t have to own the inventory. Instead, it serves as a mediator between the buyer and the seller. Amazon handles the customer experience, and in many cases, fulfillment as well — through Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA).

This allows Amazon to take a lucrative cut — often north of 30% — while keeping its own risk and costs relatively low. Sellers get access to Amazon’s massive customer base, and Amazon earns revenue without having to stock and manage as much product directly.

Q: While Amazon is building out its massive ecosystem, competition is heating up. We're seeing the meteoric rise of Temu and Shein, especially with younger and price-sensitive customers. How real is the threat they pose to Amazon and other Western retailers?

A: It’s definitely a real threat. Temu and Shein have pushed prices down, and they've benefited from the de minimis exemption, which allowed them to ship goods directly from China to U.S. customers without paying import duties. However, that exemption was recently lifted, and we’ve already seen prices on their sites rise significantly.

That levels the playing field a bit for Amazon. In response, Amazon has launched Haul, its answer to the discount-focused models of Temu and Shein. We're entering a fierce value-driven battle, and consumers — especially in today’s economy — are hunting for affordability. Whether they shop at Temu, Shein, Amazon, or Walmart, value will continue to be a major driver. Amazon knows this, and Haul is its first step in turning up the heat.

Q: You also highlighted Walmart’s aggressive digital expansion, particularly in grocery — an area where Amazon still seems to struggle. What’s keeping Amazon from cracking the grocery code?

A: Simply put, Amazon isn’t a grocer at its core — Walmart is. Over 50% of Walmart’s sales come from consumables, and they’ve spent decades mastering grocery operations. Their expansive brick-and-mortar footprint across the U.S. also gives them a big advantage with fulfillment models like buy online, pick up in store.

Amazon has made moves with Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh, but it still lacks the physical scale and operational experience that traditional grocers like Walmart have. They’ll need to work much harder and deeper to understand the grocery business — it’s just not their native strength today.

Q: Let’s talk digital advertising. How does Amazon’s growth in this space reshape the playing field for traditional retailers who have mostly relied on physical spaces and seasonal promotions?

A: Advertising is one of Amazon’s most profitable business segments. Many digital marketplaces are leaning into ads now because of their exceptionally high margins — often north of 50%, even up to 70–80%. The revenue flows straight to the bottom line.

We estimate that Amazon’s ad business could surpass $100 billion within the next five to seven years. While most of it is currently tied to retail search, we’re seeing growth in Prime Video advertising, which will become another powerful revenue stream. This kind of scale and efficiency in advertising is hard for traditional retailers to replicate.

Q: There's a lot of buzz around AI in retail. How are retailers like Amazon, Etsy, Wayfair, and eBay using generative AI to enhance the customer journey and seller experience?

A: Generative AI is a game changer. It's boosting productivity across operations — from customer service to fulfillment. Amazon, for instance, has launched Rufus, a personal shopping assistant that helps customers navigate the site, compare prices, and find exactly what they need.

On the seller side, platforms like eBay are using AI to help vendors list products more efficiently. Sellers can now get automatic assistance with pricing, product descriptions, and even competitive positioning — reducing friction and speeding up inventory onboarding. These innovations are transforming how marketplaces scale both the buyer and seller experience.

Q: Lastly, how are macro factors like tariffs and shifting consumer sentiment shaping retail strategies for 2025 and beyond? Are we entering a more cautious, value-driven era?

A: I think value has always mattered to the consumer, but macro pressures like tariffs and inflation have intensified that focus. We're in uncertain territory, and retailers are treading carefully because it’s unclear what’s here to stay and what might shift.

That said, long-term investment still matters more than reacting to short-term volatility. Larger players with deep pockets — like Amazon — are in a stronger position to weather the storm. They can afford to invest back into pricing to keep customers loyal. And with the help of other profitable verticals like AWS and advertising, Amazon can cross-subsidize and stay competitive, even in tougher times.

From Amazon's trillion-dollar roadmap to the evolving dynamics of generative AI and digital advertising, this conversation offered a clear window into the future of retail. Poonam Goyal brought thoughtful insights backed by deep industry expertise — highlighting how the retail landscape is being reshaped not just by competition and technology, but by the increasingly value-conscious consumer.