The global commercial real estate (CRE) sector has entered 2026 on a cautiously optimistic trajectory. Amid persistent macroeconomic volatility and ongoing policy uncertainty, industry leaders are looking beyond short-term turbulence to identify opportunities in targeted geographies, asset classes, and financing strategies. The latest Deloitte 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook, based on a survey of more than 850 global senior executives, illustrates the mix of resilience and recalibration shaping the industry’s near-term direction. While challenges such as high borrowing costs, capital constraints, and regulatory unpredictability temper confidence, selective growth pathways particularly in Europe, the United States, and high-demand digital infrastructure continue to reinforce CRE as a reliable, if complex, investment sector.

Macroeconomic and Policy Pressures

The CRE industry’s road to stability remains partially obstructed by macroeconomic headwinds. Survey respondents emphasized that volatility across global capital markets, shifting trade dynamics, and frequent changes to regulatory and tax frameworks continue to require rethinking of strategies. Decision-making has become more complex, as organizations weigh near-term risks against long-term growth opportunities.

Capital availability, elevated interest rates, the rising cost of capital, currency volatility, and changes in tax policy emerged as the top concerns for CRE executives in 2026. These issues are closely tied to accessing debt markets, where refinancing remains a dominant challenge. Despite the US Federal Reserve’s modest rate cuts in 2025, interest rates are still perceived as “higher for longer,” influencing lending costs and investment dynamics globally.

Still, sentiment has not collapsed. The Deloitte CRE Outlook Index scored 65 for 2026, slightly below last year’s 68 but significantly stronger than the 2023 trough of 44. This figure reflects enduring optimism in spite of ongoing uncertainty. However, that optimism has moderated slightly; 83% of respondents expect revenues to improve (compared with 88% last year), and 68% anticipate higher expenses, with fewer planning spending increases across operations, technology, and office space.

Investment Appetite: Optimism Amid Hesitation

One of the most striking signals from this year’s survey is that nearly three-quarters (75%) of respondents still intend to increase real estate investment levels over the next 12–18 months. For many, real estate remains an inflation hedge, a diversification platform, and a source of stable, long-term returns.

Geographically, the United States remains the leading destination for investment, strengthening its appeal with robust market fundamentals and deep pools of capital. However, global investors are also looking to India, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Singapore as markets of promise. These cross-border preferences underscore a broader appetite for diversification and new growth channels.

Europe, in particular, stands out for its relative optimism. About 70% of European leaders expect improvements in leasing, capital markets, and lending in the coming year. The UK, despite facing past disruptions, is re-emerging as a notable target for cross-border capital flows. Early property-value corrections in the UK have helped to mitigate refinancing gaps, with only 6% of loans considered at risk a lower exposure than in Germany and France, where refinancing risk is more concentrated.

By contrast, Asia-Pacific respondents reported greater caution. While 63% still expect fundamentals to improve in 2026, one in five cited concerns about worsening costs of capital and shrinking capital availability. Bond rate shifts, trade-related volatility, and subdued deal pipelines have weighed heavily on the region’s outlook, reflecting the uneven pace of CRE recovery worldwide.

The Role of Debt Markets in Recovery

Perhaps the most pivotal development in CRE this year involves the debt market landscape. Survey findings highlight a bifurcated lending environment on one hand, legacy loans are weighed down by defaults and refinancing risks, while on the other, new loan origination is reviving under more favorable terms.

An estimated 50% of companies face looming loan maturities in 2026, with refinancing pressures most acute in European markets such as Germany and France. Shorter-term loans, originated during the ultra-low rate conditions of 2022, are now resetting at today’s elevated borrowing costs, straining many borrowers’ coverage ratios.

Yet, opportunities are emerging. New CRE loan volume rose 13% late in 2024 and 90% year-over-year by early 2025, signaling rejuvenation in debt origination. Alternative capital sources are accelerating this recovery. Private credit funds and high-net-worth individuals made up 24% of US CRE lending volume last year significantly above the 10-year average of 14%. With deep pools of “dry powder” available an estimated US$585 billion globally alternative lenders are expected to remain an outsized force in extending liquidity to the market.

This resurgence is also drawing back traditional lenders. Banks and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) providers are cautiously re-entering the market, supported by improved underwriting discipline and healthier portfolio conditions. Lending in Europe is anticipated to grow strongly through 2026, with an estimated 80% of lenders signaling plans to expand origination activity.

Outlook: Opportunities in Digital and Beyond

When it comes to specific property sectors, the 2026 survey reinforced continuity with past years: digital economy properties, data centers and cell towers have retaken the top spot for investment opportunity. Demand for data centers remains fierce, often outstripping supply, with significant pre-leasing even before completion of new projects. While power availability poses emerging constraints in some markets, expansion opportunities in Berlin, Singapore, and parts of the US are positioning the sector for long-term growth.

Industrial properties, particularly logistics facilities and advanced manufacturing hubs, remain resilient, though leasing momentum has cooled due to shifts in trade routes and supply chain reviews. Nonetheless, long-term drivers such as onshoring and nearshoring continue to underpin demand for specialized facilities.

The office sector, long considered a laggard in post-pandemic recovery, is quietly regaining interest. Both suburban and downtown offices have climbed in sector rankings for two consecutive years. Limited new construction and improving return-to-office momentum are underpinning fresh demand for high-quality, prime office space.

Strategic Partnerships and Alliances

In an environment defined by capital selectivity, alliances and joint ventures are emerging as vital strategies. Organizations are increasingly turning toward partnerships to expand access to capital, scale operations, and enter new markets. Such alliances offer flexibility at a time when traditional mergers and acquisitions face greater headwinds.

Blackstone, Wellington Management, and Vanguard’s 2025 strategic alliance exemplifies this collaborative trend, merging public and private market strategies for diversification. Similarly, institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds and pension providers are increasingly seeking joint ventures to leverage local expertise, particularly in specialized asset sectors like healthcare real estate, life sciences, and affordable housing.

Europe and the UK are notable beneficiaries of these partnerships. For instance, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan recently expanded its European footprint through joint ventures with specialist asset managers, while GIC of Singapore continues to strengthen cross-border alliances. Such collaborations not only broaden capital scope but also allow firms to adapt to liquidity pressures and evolving client expectations.

From AI Promise to Practical Deployment

Artificial intelligence remains a key theme of the CRE outlook, though enthusiasm has evolved into pragmatism. Last year’s momentum was fueled largely by the promise of AI; this year, more respondents report challenges in execution. Nineteen percent of firms remain in early stages of AI adoption, while 27% noted difficulties with integration due to technical, cultural, or data-related barriers.

That said, AI applications are deepening across targeted use cases. Beyond chatbots and basic automation, CRE leaders are exploring multimodal systems, digital twins, and smaller, sector-specific language models. Early adoption priorities include tenant relationship management, automated lease drafting, and portfolio management. Notably, nearly half of surveyed firms expressed interest in synthetic data generation, particularly given the sensitive nature of real estate records.

The shift underscores a new reality: CRE firms are less interested in AI hype and more focused on deployments that deliver measurable operational impact. For the UK and Europe in particular where regulatory scrutiny on AI is more rigorous the emphasis has been on risk-mitigated implementation, balancing efficiency gains with human oversight and transparency.

A Pragmatic Playbook for 2026

While uncertainty remains, the opportunities shaping the global CRE industry in 2026 are both tangible and actionable. Leaders across markets are encouraged to embrace a pragmatic playbook:

• Maintain capital agility and be prepared to act on selective growth opportunities as capital markets improve.
• Rebalance portfolios toward resilient income streams, with focus on stable, income-generating properties.
• Leverage alliances and partnerships to expand reach, scale expertise, and diversify exposure.
• Deploy AI in contexts where it demonstrably enhances decision-making, operations, or leasing.
• Stress-test legacy exposures while embracing transparency to build resilience.

In Europe and the UK, a relatively positive outlook grounded in early corrections and diversified investor appetite positions these markets well for renewed capital inflows. The US will continue to serve as a magnet for global real estate investment, while Asia-Pacific markets may face a slower recovery pace.

The CRE industry’s future in 2026 is neither wholly secure nor perilously fragile; it is defined by intelligent adaptation. Leaders who treat uncertainty not as paralysis but as an impetus for strategic action are positioned not just to weather the cycle but to shape the recovery.